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2011 Forecast Alert - Revised and Refined - THE GLOBAL FUTURIST
Dear Friends, Colleagues, TNNWC Members and Fellow Futurists:
Much is happening very quickly. Signs of trends are fairly easy to recognize, and extrapolating these trends (subject to constant fine-tuning and to the vagaries of events which are unpredictable by today's best available science, i.e., typhoons, etcetera, science.
When the rate of change accelerates, this makes the sport/game/science/art of prognostication more complex -- and requires much more frequent analyses to accommodate and increase in the number and volatility of variables. Preparing your personal, business and financial affairs for a hailstorm of successive rapid changes is quite a challenge. Here are some immediate hardships and opportunities directly ahead within the next 3 months to 12 months.
This is not economic, tax, business, financial, investment, legal or health advice. It is merely a statement of the point of view of Douglas Castle (http://aboutdouglascastle.blogspot.com/) .
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1. Tremendous increasing instability in the Middle East and Northern Africa, brought about through the revolution in open Social Media and citizen journalism. While the citizens and servants of various monarchies, dictatorships and despotic regimes are calling for increased administrative transparancy, democratic government reforms and greater freedoms, these media-emboldened masses are not merely fighting in a world of ideas; they are in a massive power struggle -- extremist religious groups, fickle government military forces, and the escalating threat of chaos (instead of coalition) amkes the outcome of these brushfire revolutions unclear. Several things are certain, though, with the perception of threats to the security of the Suez Canal and the Straits of Hormuz, on top of increasingly negative revelations about bansk and financial institutions worldwide and rapid changes in the weather worldwide -- from record-breaking snowfalls, to flooding and the resurgence of such diseases as cholera.
2. Skyrocketing oil prices worldwide, especially in the United States. Expect oil at $120 - $160 per barrel before year-end, with gasoline at $5.00 gallon at the pumps. This will increase unemployment in all western economies, and increase profits for the major international oil companies.
3. ETFs and other investments in Southeast Asia, Brazil and India will outperform most if not all alternatives worldwide.
4. Prices of agricultural commodities will increase precariously worldwide, and to a slightly lesser, but significant degree in the United States. The disparity between household income and regular living expenses will drive many U.S and other citizens and servants worldwide into poverty, with all of its horrific side-effects.
5. There will be heavy lobbying in the United States for an expanded military budget, despite current rhetoric about troop withdrawals and scaling down the defense budget. In a panic response to fear of international instability and the never-ending "War On Terror" (there's an oxymoron!). The military budget will be increased, and significantly. Companies involved in "country rebuilding" (trained mercenaries with state-of-the-art weaponry, ready to be deployed to whatever troubled part of the world management dictates) will prosper - Hail Halliburton, Blackwater and their ilk. They will profit intensely while The U.S. and other governments nefariously convert national funds toward "subcontracting" fights -- this is indeed a crafty way for the government to camouflague tremendously increased government spending. Much of this will be at the expense of education and the public welfare.
Your might find my most recent article in THE INTERNATIONALIST PAGE BLOG to be of considerable interest in relation to the above Alert.
Additionally, on the horizon:
- In the United States, individual states will be testing their "right to declare bankruptcy" in the courts, in a tug-of-war with a very expensive and fiscally irresponsible government. This will not bode well for state workers or for the prices of municipal bonds;
- Social networking sites and platforms will increase their data-gathering, data-mining and data-selling efforts, revenues and control of the media, in general. They will be glorified (Facebook) and demonized (Facebook);
- Privacy will become a growing industry. Weapons sales (private sector, both legal and illegal) will increase worldwide. Online reputation management and protection will become a growing industry. Internet intelligence-gathering (web-scraping, aggregating) will be a growing industry. Alternative forms of agriculture using alternative forms of energy (non-fossil fuels) will become the subject of greater interest;
- Crowdfundings and micro-fundings (private) will increase dramatically in popularity;
- Radical climate change and extreme weather will continue to increase all agricultural commodity prices, and many of the insurance companies that provide various insurances against the risks associated with "bad growing seasons" and the like will be fighting to stay alive by disputing a plethora of claims from angry, injured insureds.
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
THE GLOBAL FUTURIST - http://theglobalfuturist.blogspot.com/
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THE INTERNATIONALIST PAGE - "A shrinking world, with expanding opportunities."
http://theinternationalistpage.blogspot.com/
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Originally published in THORIUM AND THE RARE EARTH ELEMENTS by author Douglas Castle. Mr. Castle is the Chairman and Director Of Business Strategy of TNNWC Group, LLC, with does not have any investments or interests in Thorium or Rare Earth Elements, either as commodities, or in the form of ownership in operating companies.
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